The Export-Import (Exim) Bank of India has forecast India’s total merchandise exports to touch $111.2 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.3 per cent, during the October-December quarter (Q3) of FY2024.
Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to $88.1 billion, growing 7.7 per cent year-on-year, Exim Bank said.
The positive growth rates are expected after the negative growth seen during the first two quarters of the year. “Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of improvement in India’s GDP growth outlook and expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand,” it said.
“The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors,” Exim Bank said.
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India’s total merchandise exports have consistently remained above $100 billion for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 FY2022, reflecting resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions.
With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the first nine months of FY2024 are expected to amount to $323 billion, while non-oil exports could amount to $258 billion during the same period. Positive growth in exports is expected to continue in the last quarter of the financial year, it said.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.